The Economic Advisor

Britain’s Population to Increase

September 4th, 2008

The EU27 population is projected to increase from 495 million on 1 January 2008 to 521 million in 2035, and thereafter gradually decline to 506 million in 2060. The annual number of births is projected to fall over the period 2008-2060, while at the same time the annual number of deaths is projected to continue rising. From 2015 onwards deaths would outnumber births, and hence population growth due to natural increase would cease. From this point onwards, positive net migration would be the only population growth factor. However, from 2035 this positive net migration would no longer counterbalance the negative natural change, and the population is projected to begin to fall.

The EU27 population is also projected to continue to grow older, with the share of the population aged 65 years and over rising from 17.1% in 2008 to 30.0% in 2060, and those aged 80 and over rising from 4.4% to 12.1% over the same period.

These population projections for the period 2008-2060 come from a report issued by Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities. Population projections are what-if scenarios that aim to provide information about the likely future size and structure of the population, and should therefore be considered with caution.

The EU statistical office Eurostat, predicts that Britain’s population will increase from 61m to 76.6m by 2060, while Germany’s (currently Europe’s most populous nation) is expected to reduce from 82.2m to 70.7m.

Migration will become the main driver behind population growth after deaths outnumber births in 2015.

Amelia Torres, a European Commission spokeswoman, told the Metro newspaper: “The ageing of the population is one of the major challenges Europe must face. We want to carry on reforming pensions systems to ensuring these systems are sustainable in the long term.”

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